| CPC G06Q 30/0202 (2013.01) | 8 Claims |
|
1. A prediction system comprising:
a central processing unit (CPU);
a second CPU coupled to the first CPU; and
a plurality of generators generating electric power,
wherein the first CPU is programmed to execute:
a factor selecting unit that performs factor selection processing including performing a factor selection operation, which is an operation for selecting one or two or more factors from one or a plurality of factors based on averaged contribution about each of the one or the plurality of factors, and the factor selection processing including averaging, about each of one or a plurality of factors, a contribution to a prediction model to be identified based on the plurality of factor values for past specimens and a plurality of contributions respectively corresponding to a plurality of points in time in past;
a factor filter unit that minimizes a prediction model error by performing factor filtering processing before performing the factor selection processing, the factor filtering processing including: determining, about each of the one or the plurality of factors, whether a factor value for prediction that is input to a prediction model of power demand to calculate a prediction value of a prediction target of power demand is within a range of a plurality of factor values for past specimens used to identify the prediction model; and excluding a factor, a result of the determination of which is false, and outputting a factor not excluded; and
a predicting unit that performs prediction processing including calculating the prediction value of the prediction target by inputting, to the prediction model, a factor value for prediction about each of one or more factors including the factor selected in the factor selection processing and not including the factor excluded in the factor filtering processing,
wherein the prediction processing includes:
adjusting, based on a contribution to prediction of each of the one or more factors, a matching degree of the factor to a prediction model to be identified; and
inputting a factor value for prediction of each of the one or more factors to the prediction model based on the matching degree after the adjusting, and
wherein at least one of the factors is outdoor temperature,
wherein the second CPU is programmed to:
based on the calculated prediction value, create an operation schedule including a number of the plurality of generators to be stated and an output distribution of the generators, and
execute the created operation schedule to start and operate the number of generators.
|