US 12,381,903 B2
Modeling cyberspace operations and operation effectiveness
Charles Edward Fisher, III, Zebulon, NC (US); and Steven J. Lorenc, Wake Forest, NC (US)
Assigned to Applied Research Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (US)
Filed by Applied Research Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (US)
Filed on Mar. 3, 2023, as Appl. No. 18/178,264.
Prior Publication US 2024/0297892 A1, Sep. 5, 2024
Int. Cl. H04L 9/40 (2022.01)
CPC H04L 63/1433 (2013.01) 20 Claims
OG exemplary drawing
 
1. One or more non-transitory computer-readable media storing computer-executable instructions that, when executed by at least one processor, perform a method of simulating a cyberspace operation on an operational environment model, comprising:
receiving network and connectivity data for modeling the operational environment model, the operational environment model comprising a plurality of network elements,
wherein each network element of the plurality of network elements comprises one or more possible configurations;
calculating, based on a first likelihood of a network element having each of the one or more possible configurations, an effect probability for a capability acting on the network element;
calculating, based on a second likelihood of a successive network element having each of the one or more possible configurations and on a state of a preceding network element, at least one additional effect probability for at least one successive network element to obtain a plurality of effect probabilities;
calculating, based on the plurality of effect probabilities, a success probability for the cyberspace operation on the operational environment model; and
generating an attack graph for the operational environment model based on the success probability, the attack graph comprising an attack path through the operational environment model corresponding to the success probability.