| CPC G05B 23/0283 (2013.01) [G05B 23/024 (2013.01)] | 4 Claims |
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1. A system for assessing a failure probability of a target object, the system comprising:
a computer comprising one or more processors and memory, the computer configured to:
store, in a failure probability density function parameter database, past failure probability density function parameters for determining a failure probability density function of the target object;
store, in a failure history database, past failure history data for the target object;
store, in a time series operation database, time series operation data showing operational states of the target object;
generate survival analysis data using the past failure history data and the time series operation data;
identify the survival analysis data showing a variation of the failure probability density function of the target object that satisfies a predefined condition, wherein the variation of the failure probability density function of the target object is minimized;
estimate, using Bayesian estimation, a posterior probability distribution with a probability distribution determined based on the time series operation data, the survival analysis data and the past failure probability density function parameters;
calculate a present or future failure probability density function parameter from the posterior probability distribution; and
display an estimated failure probability of the target object.
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