| CPC H04L 25/0202 (2013.01) [G06F 18/241 (2023.01)] | 7 Claims |
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1. An estimation system, comprising:
a first computer including a first network interface and a storage device, the storage device storing sample estimation object data, sample factor data, and estimation factor data, the sample estimation data being time series data of electric power consumption, and the sample factor data being time series data of weather values which affect the time series data of electric power consumption, the estimation factor data including, for each of the one or more factors, a data set representing a value of a time series of the factor in a future period;
a second computer including a second network interface coupled to the first network interface via a network; and
an electric power generator that consumes fuel,
wherein the second computer is programmed to:
generate, from the sample estimation object data, a plurality of estimation object transition patterns, each of which being a pattern of a transition of a value of the estimation object,
specify a pattern factor dependency relationship which is a dependency relationship between (X) and (Y) based on the sample factor data and the plurality of estimation object transition patterns, (X) being an estimation object transition pattern, and (Y) being a value of the one or more factors and an estimation object transition pattern at a past or future time point,
identify an estimation model which is a model in accordance with the pattern factor dependency relationship and which is a model that accepts the value of the one or more factors and the estimation object transition pattern at a past or future time point as input and which produces an estimation object transition pattern as output, and
generate, by inputting the estimation factor data to the estimation model, estimation result data which is data including one or more data sets representing a time series of a value in the future period of the estimation object using at least one of the plurality of estimation object transition patterns,
determine, based on the estimation result data, an amount of fuel for the generator which corresponds to the future period, as part of an operation plan of the generator, and
transmit a command to control the generator based on the operation plan to operate the generator,
wherein a period of transition represented by each of the plurality of estimation object transition patterns is shorter than the future period and is a time period of minutes, hours, days, or weeks.
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