US 12,286,597 B2
Forecasting the progress of coking and fouling for improved production planning in chemical production plants
Simeon Sauer, Heidelberg (DE); Daniel Keck, Ludwigshafen am Rhein (DE); Eric Jenne, Ludwigshafen am Rhein (DE); Alexander Badinski, Ludwigshafen am Rhein (DE); Miriam Angela Anna Hahkala, Ludwigshafen am Rhein (DE); Bart Blankers, Antwerp (BE); Hendrik De Winne, Antwerp (BE); and Britta Carolin Buck, Ludwigshafen am Rhein (DE)
Assigned to BASF SE, Ludwigshafen am Rhein (DE)
Appl. No. 17/629,435
Filed by BASF SE, Ludwigshafen am Rhein (DE)
PCT Filed Jul. 27, 2020, PCT No. PCT/EP2020/071140
§ 371(c)(1), (2) Date Jan. 24, 2022,
PCT Pub. No. WO2021/014025, PCT Pub. Date Jan. 28, 2021.
Claims priority of application No. 19188437 (EP), filed on Jul. 25, 2019; and application No. 19197875 (EP), filed on Sep. 17, 2019.
Prior Publication US 2022/0243133 A1, Aug. 4, 2022
Int. Cl. C10G 9/36 (2006.01); C10G 9/16 (2006.01); C10G 9/20 (2006.01); F27D 19/00 (2006.01); G05B 23/02 (2006.01); G06F 30/27 (2020.01); G06F 119/22 (2020.01); G06Q 10/04 (2023.01)
CPC C10G 9/36 (2013.01) [C10G 9/16 (2013.01); C10G 9/206 (2013.01); F27D 19/00 (2013.01); G05B 23/0283 (2013.01); G06F 30/27 (2020.01); G06Q 10/04 (2013.01); G06F 2119/22 (2020.01)] 14 Claims
OG exemplary drawing
 
1. A computer-implemented method (100) for predicting a progress of degradation in an equipment of a chemical production plant, comprising:
a) obtaining (110) a future value of at least one operating parameter of the equipment within a prediction horizon that defines a first future time period over which the progress of degradation in the equipment is predicted, wherein the at least one operating parameter has an influence on the degradation of the equipment, and
wherein the at least one operating parameter is known and/or controllable over the prediction horizon, such that the future value of the at least one operating parameter can be determined over the prediction horizon;
b) using (120) a prediction model to estimate a future value of at least one key performance indicator within the prediction horizon based on an input data set comprising the future value of the at least one operating parameter,
wherein the prediction model is parametrized or trained based on a sample set including historical data of at least one process variable and the at least one operating parameter, wherein the at least one process variable is used to determine the at least one key performance indicator; and
c) predicting (130) the progress of degradation in the equipment within the prediction horizon based on the future value of the at least one key performance indicator;
wherein the progress of degradation comprises one or more of:
a heat exchanger that suffers from a coking or other fouling process due to at least one of coke layer formation, polymerization, microbial deposits, and inorganic deposits;
a pipe where mass flow is impeded by a coking or other fouling process due to coke layer formation and/or polymerization;
a fixed bed reactor that suffers from a coking or other fouling process due to coke layer formation, polymerization, and/or deposits of solid material originating from an upstream unit operation;
a fluidized bed reactor that suffers from a coking or other fouling process due to coke layer formation, polymerization, and/or deposits of solid material originating from an upstream unit operation;
a fluidized bed reactor that suffers from a coking or other fouling process due to coke layer formation, polymerization and/or deposits of solid material originating from an upstream unit operation; and
a filter, the efficiency of which deteriorates due to polymerization and/or deposits of solid material originating from an upstream unit operation.