| CPC G01V 99/00 (2013.01) | 2 Claims |
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1. A method of calculating volcanic ash dispersion prediction information in real time in a first country, which is performed by a volcanic ash dispersion prediction system for calculating volcanic ash dispersion prediction information in real time,
wherein the volcanic ash dispersion prediction system includes a processor and a non-transitory memory storing computer-readable instructions executable by the processor,
wherein the method is performed by the processor of the volcanic ash dispersion prediction system using the computer-readable instructions and comprises:
collecting volcanic ash advisory texts from a volcanic ash advisory center located in a second country different from the first country in real time and collecting weather forecast data including weather related data of the second country in real time, wherein the collecting of the volcanic ash advisory texts comprises collecting a volcanic ash advisory text from the volcanic ash advisory center;
preprocessing the collected volcanic ash advisory texts and preprocessing the collected weather forecast data, wherein the preprocessing of the collected volcanic ash advisory texts comprises preprocessing the collected volcanic ash advisory text, and the preprocessing of the collected weather forecast data comprises converting a format of the collected weather forecast data to a format of meteorological input data for a Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model being operated by the volcanic ash dispersion prediction system; and
calculating a volcanic ash eruption rate using some of the preprocessed volcanic ash advisory texts and the preprocessed weather forecast data,
wherein the method further comprises operating the HYSPLIT model by the volcanic ash dispersion prediction system using the calculated volcanic ash eruption rate as an input data of the HYSPLIT model,
wherein the operating of the HYSPLIT model comprises operating the HYSPLIT model by the volcanic ash dispersion prediction system using the collected [new] volcanic ash advisory text and the collected weather forecast data to obtain predicted values of a volcanic ash concentration and a volcanic ash deposition amount,
wherein the HYSPLIT model includes a volcanic ash dispersion prediction model which is to predict volcanic ash dispersion,
wherein the calculating of the volcanic ash eruption rate includes:
determining a mass fraction of particles with a diameter less than a reference value according to a type of volcanic eruption and a scale of a volcanic eruption; and
calculating the volcanic ash eruption rate using at least one of the mass fraction of the particles and a ratio of a volcanic ash concentration to the mass fraction of the particles,
wherein the volcanic ash eruption rate is calculated by Equation 1,
 where, M63 denotes a mass fraction of particles in volcanic ash that have a diameter of less than 63 μm and are floatable in the air for several hours or more, wherein A10 and A63 are diameters,
Re denotes a ratio of a PM10 concentration to the mass fraction of the particles in the volcanic ash that have a diameter of less than 63 μm, and
H denotes an eruption column height,
wherein the preprocessing of the collected volcanic ash advisory text comprises extracting volcanic eruption-related information to be used as input data for the HYSPLIT model,
wherein the volcanic eruption-related information includes one or more of a volcano location, a volcano height, an eruption time, and an eruption column height,
wherein the format of the meteorological input data for the HYSPLIT model is an Air Resource Laboratory (ARL) format,
wherein the converting of the format of the collected weather forecast data to the format of the meteorological input data for the HYSPLIT model comprises converting the format of the collected weather forecast data to the ARL format,
wherein the meteorological input data includes a plurality of pieces of meteorological input data for the HYSPLIT model, and each of the plurality of pieces of meteorological input data has the ARL format, and
wherein the preprocessing of the collected weather forecast data comprises:
based on the volcanic ash advisory text being identified from among the collected volcanic ash advisory texts by the volcanic ash dispersion prediction system, using meteorological input data closest to a time of arrival of the volcanic ash advisory text from among the plurality of pieces of meteorological input data in the ARL format as input weather data of the HYSPLIT model.
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