CPC G01W 1/12 (2013.01) [G01R 21/1331 (2013.01); G01W 1/02 (2013.01); G06F 17/11 (2013.01); G06F 17/16 (2013.01); G06F 30/20 (2020.01); G06Q 10/04 (2013.01); G06Q 50/06 (2013.01); H02J 3/38 (2013.01); H02S 50/00 (2013.01); H02S 50/15 (2014.12); G06Q 50/04 (2013.01); H02J 2203/20 (2020.01); Y02E 10/56 (2013.01); Y02E 60/00 (2013.01); Y02P 90/30 (2015.11); Y04S 40/20 (2013.01)] | 20 Claims |
1. A system for estimating photovoltaic energy through empirical derivation with the aid of a digital computer, comprising:
at least one computer processor configured to:
obtain solar irradiance data comprising a set of irradiance observations that have been recorded for a location at which a photovoltaic plant can be operated with each irradiance observation in the set being separated by regular intervals of time;
obtain measured irradiance associated with at least some of the irradiance observations;
obtain a set of clear sky irradiance with each clear sky irradiance in the set corresponding to one of the irradiance observations;
empirically derive using an optimization approach a weighting factor array using at least some of the measured irradiance and the irradiance observations associated with the at least some measured irradiance;
estimate a set of normalized irradiation, with each normalized irradiation in the set corresponding to one of the irradiance observations, using the weighing factor array and the irradiance observations;
form a time series of clearness indexes with each clearness index in the time series corresponding to one of the irradiance observations, each clearness index comprising a ratio of the irradiance observation's corresponding normalized irradiation estimate and the irradiance observation's corresponding clear sky irradiance; and
forecast photovoltaic energy production for the photovoltaic plant as a function of the time series of the clearness indexes and photovoltaic plant's power rating.
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