CPC H02J 3/003 (2020.01) [G05B 13/048 (2013.01); H02J 2203/20 (2020.01)] | 18 Claims |
1. A method of adaptive persistence forecasting for load control comprising:
receiving historical load values for a site comprising at least one component that consumes energy;
receiving historical temperature values corresponding to dates of the historical load values;
evaluating the historical load values and the historical temperature values to determine a correlation coefficient;
determining that there exists at least a threshold correlation between a load activity and temperature for the historical load values and the historical temperature values based on the correlation coefficient;
in response to determining that there exists at least the threshold correlation, normalizing the historical load values based on a set temperature;
applying an adaptive seasonal persistence model to the normalized historical load values to output a forecast;
receiving a temperature prediction;
generating a correction term using the temperature prediction and a correlation relationship between the historical load values and the historical temperature values identified when evaluating the historical load values and the historical temperature values;
applying the correction term to the forecast;
rescaling the forecast; and
controlling energy resources at the site using the rescaled forecast.
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