CPC H04L 41/145 (2013.01) [G06N 7/01 (2023.01); H04L 41/065 (2013.01); H04L 41/0636 (2013.01); H04L 41/142 (2013.01); G06N 20/00 (2019.01); Y04S 40/00 (2013.01)] | 23 Claims |
1. A method of managing a network with utility assets of an electrical grid, the method comprising:
generating, using a processor, a directed graph with each of the utility assets represented as a node in the directed graph, the utility assets including electrical assets of the electrical grid;
determining a historical failure rate for each node of at least a portion of the utility assets over a predetermined period of time;
determining a relationship of the historical failure rates with one or more physical attributes of one or more of the utility assets;
generating a training model based on the historical failure rates and the relationships of the historical failure rates with the one or more physical attributes of the one or more utility assets;
determining, using the training model, an individual failure probability of each node;
computing, using the processor, a downstream failure probability of each of at least a subset of the nodes of the directed graph according to an arrangement of the nodes in the directed graph, the computing the downstream failure probability including:
determining whether a path between a selected node of the at least a subset of nodes and a particular node of the directed graph, and
computing the downstream failure probability of the selected node based on the determination regarding the path;
computing, using the processor, an upstream failure probability of each node of the at least the subset of nodes according to the arrangement of the nodes in the directed graph;
computing a network failure probability for each node of the at least the subset of nodes based on the corresponding individual failure probability, the corresponding downstream failure probability, and the corresponding upstream failure probability; and
increasing frequency of inspection of one or more nodes based on the network failure probability of the nodes probability.
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