US 11,668,536 B2
Systems and methods for predicting tube fouling in a fired apparatus, and for utilizing tube fouling predictions
Fei Qi, Calgary (CA); and Mathew Walker, Calgary (CA)
Assigned to Suncor Energy Inc., Calgary (CA)
Filed by Suncor Energy Inc., Calgary (CA)
Filed on Mar. 19, 2019, as Appl. No. 16/358,426.
Claims priority of application No. CA 3003072 (CA), filed on Apr. 30, 2018.
Prior Publication US 2019/0331336 A1, Oct. 31, 2019
Int. Cl. F28G 15/00 (2006.01); F22B 37/56 (2006.01); F22B 35/18 (2006.01); G01N 17/00 (2006.01); F28F 27/00 (2006.01)
CPC F28G 15/003 (2013.01) [F22B 35/18 (2013.01); F22B 37/56 (2013.01); G01N 17/008 (2013.01); F28F 27/00 (2013.01); F28F 2200/00 (2013.01)] 35 Claims
OG exemplary drawing
 
1. A method for determining maintenance timing for a fired apparatus operable to heat fluid feeds, the method comprising:
receiving, from at least one measurement point coupled to the fired apparatus, data indicative of a current load on the fired apparatus;
predicting an indicator of fouling at a future time based on: i) a current fouling condition based on loads applied to the fired apparatus determined at a plurality of times prior to the predicting, ii) feed quality determined at a plurality of times prior to the predicting, and iii) the current load on the fired apparatus determined from the data received from the at least one measurement point, wherein the indicator of fouling is predicted by:
using a first set of historical data to generate a first model between the indicator of fouling and the loads applied to the fired apparatus;
using a second set of historical data to generate a second model reflecting how one or more quality variables affect a rate of fouling over time;
determining the current load on the fired apparatus; and
using the first and second models and the current load on the fired apparatus to determine the prediction;
comparing the predicted indicator of fouling to a predetermined threshold for that indicator; and
based on the comparison, determining timing for a maintenance operation for the fired apparatus.