CPC G06F 3/04847 (2013.01) [E21B 44/00 (2013.01); E21B 47/13 (2020.05); E21B 47/18 (2013.01); G06F 3/04842 (2013.01); G06Q 10/101 (2013.01); G06Q 50/01 (2013.01); G07F 17/3204 (2013.01); G07F 17/3244 (2013.01); G07F 17/3272 (2013.01); G07F 17/3288 (2013.01); H04L 67/10 (2013.01); H04L 67/12 (2013.01); E21B 47/00 (2013.01); E21B 47/12 (2013.01); E21B 49/00 (2013.01); E21B 49/003 (2013.01); G01V 13/00 (2013.01)] | 6 Claims |
1. A system for forecasting a future event by aggregating input from a group of users, the system comprising:
a plurality of computing devices, each including a graphical display, a user interface, a forecasting application running on the computing device, and configured for network communication, wherein each computing device is associated with one member of the group of users;
a server in networked communication with each of the plurality of computing devices and including a server application running on the server, wherein the system is configured to:
display, on each of the computing devices, a forecasting prompt and a dynamic user interface for capturing an associated user's dynamic response to the forecasting prompt, wherein the dynamic user interface includes: a user-manipulatable marker that can be moved by the associated user to input a forecasting value responsive to the forecasting prompt,
provide a first forecasting period during which the associated user of each of the plurality of computing devices independently adjusts the user-manipulatable marker to set an initial forecasting value responsive to the forecasting prompt, said initial forecasting value collected and stored by the server from each of the plurality of computing devices as provided by each member of the group of users;
after the first forecasting period has ended, display a perturbation stimulus on each of the plurality of computing devices, the perturbation stimulus based at least in part on data collected by the server from the plurality of computing devices during the first forecasting period;
provide a second forecasting period following the display of the perturbation stimulus wherein the second forecasting period starts at substantially the same time for all members, during which the associated user of each of the plurality of computing devices adjusts their user-manipulatable marker to set an updated forecasting value responsive to the forecasting prompt, said updated forecasting value collected and stored by the server from each of the plurality of computing devices as provided by each member of the group of users;
calculate an adjustment amount for each of the plurality of computing devices, the adjustment amount for each computing device indicating a change between the initial forecasting value and the updated forecasting value collected from that computing device in response to the perturbation stimulus; and
after the second forecasting period has ended, calculate a final group forecast by aggregating data from the plurality of the computing devices, said calculating based at least in part on the adjustment amount computed for each of the plurality of the computing devices.
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